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Posted on September 6, 2016
Offshore Gambling Operators to fall under Secondary UK Online Gambling Tax
Speaking about the issue, Ralph Topping, CEO, William Hill, said, “Money will always find a way out. Views of many of experts from the industry as well as several gambling ventures representatives will be considered by the committee before a conclusion is arrived at. With a growing number of people voicing their opinions against this glaring differentiation, the government of UK has been forced to rethink its policies.
In the recent turn of events, UK officials have decided to investigate the online gambling taxation scenario in the country and have declared that a commissioning body has already been formed for the same. There is a major discrepancy in the profits earned by the offshore and local ventures, thanks to the extremely lenient taxation rules that are levied on the offshore operators. I hope the Government sees sense on this.” For the very purpose of evading high taxes in the UK, William Hill had moved its operations headquarter from the country to Gibraltar. Going by the report, tough times are predicted for offshore online gambling operators as the government plans to impose taxation laws that promise to be more stringent than they have been in the past. With this new law being passed, William Hill would be back to the mess it was in three years back. However, since the time of its inception, this has come under scrutiny and has been widely criticised not just by local land-based casinos and betting establishments related to sports but also by several prominent politicians and public figures of the country. If the stricter laws are sanctioned, such disparity will soon be a thing of the past.
The survey revealed that should the taxation be levied on such operators, gamblers and betters in UK would not shy away from playing at unlicensed sites, just to avoid the complications. As a result of this, the government has decided to apply a secondary tax on all such offshore gambling ventures.. This survey conducted by William Hill also brought to light the fact that if the tax is 10%, ventures would lose 27% of their revenue while if the tax is 15%, ventures would lose as much as 40% of their revenue. The results have been worth a glance.
The relatively easier law that governs offshore gambling ventures was adopted by the UK online gambling legislation in the year 2005. Currently, the offshore operators who provide online gambling facilities in Britain have an upper hand on the British operators which has, understandably, disgruntled the local land and online operators. With so much talk surrounding the UK government’s impending secondary taxation and licensing implementation, legendary William Hill decided to go ahead with its independent survey. More people will go overseas or to fly-by-night, unregulated sites where the consumer is not protected. Owing to such rules, offshore ventures have managed to cash in much more than their UK-based operators have been able to do. However, there are other ventures like Rank PLC that believe giving offshore ventures the advantage of not having to pay tax is against the EU legislation.
The commission that has been formed by the UK officials has been established with the purpose of analysing the relevance, bearing and outcome, should a secondary taxation be implemented on the offshore operators
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Posted on September 6, 2016
How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.
Contributed by:
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.
Why the Line Changes
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
RJ Bell
©Pregame.com 2006
Website: http://www.Pregame.com
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account.
How the Opening Line Is Made
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. . If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created
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Posted on September 5, 2016
Richard Gere, ‘Arbitrage’ Star, On His Sporty Past
His gymnast past impressed more than just us — his 12-year-old son, while watching the Olympics with his dad, was shocked to find out Gere used to pull off the same feats as the guys on TV.
We knew Richard Gere had a whole life before his star-making role in “American Gigolo,” but we didn’t know it involved a pommel horse.
Gere has since followed other pursuits; while he’s better known for acting, Gere and his wife also run a Relais and Chateaux, a boutique hotel and restaurant. To hear more about Gere’s first job, watch the video above.
“There’s a picture of me [at home] having just done a dismount — I was actually looking pretty good,” Gere said. It’s not his first time working in food services. “He was very impressed that his dad had been a gymnast.”
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Posted on September 5, 2016
Business News, Personal Finance and Money News
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Automatic emergency braking can help prevent car crashes or reduce their severity by…
The agreement announced today affects nearly all light-duty cars and trucks with a…
This agreement will expedite automatic emergency braking standards three years faster…
Every time a new safety technology becomes standard on modern cars it adds to the costs…
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Posted on September 5, 2016
10 Steps You Can Take To Stop Gambling Today
Good help seems to come from ex-gamblers themselves because they’ve been there, & they understand. Carrying recovery reading & phone numbers help. He is an author, life coach, sponsor, & former GA chapter president, husband, & stepfather.
. Connect your gambling with the the negative consequences its brought into your life.
Jason is a recovered compulsive gambler of over 5 years and a certified professional life coach. (Email the author at [email protected] for online communities you can join today). In the moment, you’ll want a plan of action to take when the urge to gamble attempts to overwhelm you.
STEP 4: SUBMIT YOURSELF TO A PROGRAM OF RECOVERY
What does this mean exactly? It means you must submit,commit, & trust in the program of recovery you choose. The only time casinos won’t let you gamble, is when you don’t have what they want……money.
When you absolutely must stop gambling right now, here are 10 steps you can take today.
STEP 8: STAY HOPEFUL
Only those who never give up on themselves & their program of recovery beat gambling.
STEP 1: GET RID OF YOUR MONEY
If you want to stop gambling right now, the first step begins by stopping to carry money.
These 10 steps are an excellent start to stopping gambling today.
If you have any unanswered questions or need to be pointed in the right direction email [email protected]
There is but one good throw upon the dice, which is, to throw them away. -Author Unknown.
STEP 5: CARRY RESOURCES WITH YOU AT ALL TIMES
Get or print off pro gambling recovery literature & carry it with you at all times.
Read it daily, especially in first months. This includes credit cards, debit cards, access to bank accounts, checks, loans, etc. Put up pictures of them & when you see it, remember that’s who you’re stopping for.
Recognize that if you gamble, you’re letting them down.
Remind yourself of all the bad things that have been caused by your obsession to gamble. There are 1000′s of people who once were severely addicted to gambling, haven’t gambled for months and even years. Inpatient Treatment is another. It may sound funny, but joining a group of fellow recovering gamblers gives you strength & power over your gambling. Know that if they can do it, you can too. Know what to do & who to call if a thought or urges to gamble hits you….(and unfortunately they will).
STEP 2: GET HELP TODAY
To overcome something as powerful as a gambling problem or addiction, we must get help from others.
Help is out there in many forms. If needed, list them out. A gambling problem is very strong, plays many tricks on on our minds, & tries to convince us of many lies. There are therapists, counselors, & life coaches out there trained to help you stop. You make lifelong friends who will always understand and care.
This step can be done by attending Gamblers Anonymous, Celebrate Recovery, & finding online support and help. Don’t know where to turn to for help? Email [email protected]
To learn the secrets to stopping gambling now, & to get 1 on 1 coaching from Jason visit http://www.livegamblefree.com or email Jason at [email protected]
STEP 7: REMIND YOURSELF WHY YOU’RE STOPPING, & FOR WHO.
Make a list of the people you love & love you back. Gamblers Anonymous is one. Its best to find someone who’s been in your shoes, but hasn’t gambled in quite some time.
Make sure you like them, they have your best interest in mind, & truly do help you. He’s overcome his own addiction to gambling & has helped many others do the same. Know that there are 1000′s of recovering gamblers. Combat this with the previous 9 steps & a one on one coach, sponsor, or therapist. If you want to stop starting right now, block all access to money. You help yourself and others triumph over a common enemy.
STEP 9: HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE FOR YOUR NEXT URGE
When your next urge comes, what will you do? You’ll need to know the answer to this. If you gamble online, get gamblock today.
STEP 3: JOIN A COMMUNITY OF RECOVERING GAMBLERS
Recovering in numbers is key. (because it is the truth).
STEP 10: GET 1 ON 1 SUPPORT.
Stopping Gambling isn’t easy. Carry only a very small budget for food each day and thats it.( absolutely no more than $5). Call them ANYTIME you need to. You trust that the program will solve your gambling problem, as long as you never give up on it.
Author’s Bio:
STEP 6: BAN YOURSELF FROM GAMBLING (ONLINE AND OFF)
If you go to a local casino, take a caring friend and ban yourself for life.
If you play online, contact the online casino and have your account closed permanently, & demand to be banned from their site. Have phone numbers listed for people to call who support you in your recovery. In the beginning the constant thoughts and urges to gamble can be intense
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Posted on September 4, 2016
Hedge funds feast on credit arbitrage bonanza | Reuters
If things get materially worse, people will need
to de-risk their bond exposure and cash spreads will catch up;
if it improves, indices will look like an attractive and liquid
way to put risk back on as they are trading wide to intrinsic
value,” said Sheets.
One credit fund manager told IFR he would be postponing his
summer holiday to take full advantage of the bonanza, with
lucrative arbitrages also cropping up between index and
single-name CDS contracts, as well as the various credit
indices.
* Investors hunt for liquidity to cover long positions
THE MAIN SHOW
(Reporting by Christopher Whittall; editing by Helen
Bartholomew, Matthew Davies)
This has caused the index to shoot to its widest level since
November, while cash markets have lagged behind..
The liquidity of CDS indices has made them the hedging
weapon of choice for many real-money managers, who can rarely
find the liquidity in cash markets needed to shift large chunks
of credit risk during times of stress. Either fears over higher rates are
leading to a sea change in the market and bond outflows, or it’s
a more normal sell-off,” said Andrew Sheets, head of European
credit strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Despite credit volatility picking up, dealers say liquidity
has held up, allowing investors to take views. Dealers say sub financial CDS has
snapped back in line with where it had been trading before these
concerns took hold, burning some participants in the process.
Buyside investors scrambling to cover long credit positions
have been the main driver of the market shift, as they have
hoovered up USD15bn of net protection on iTraxx Main – the
benchmark for European investment-grade credit – over the past
two weeks, according to data from the DTCC.
LONDON, June 28 (IFR) – A choppy European credit market may
have kept issuers on the sidelines of late, but it has gifted a
raft of trading opportunities for credit hedge funds as a large
basis has opened up between cash and synthetic markets.
By Christopher Whittall
A handful of banks now offer iBoxx total return swap
packages, giving investors a clean way to arbitrage the basis by
selling the cash bonds while going long credit through the CDS
index.
“There are competing narratives for why the CDS market has
been weak versus cash. As a result, the basis
between cash and CDS has widened by about 25bp since iTraxx Main
reached its recent wide of 132bp on June 24.
Arbitrage opportunities remain, including the index skew
between the Main index and its underlying single-name
constituents, but many of these will probably be ironed out
before too long.
“It seems likely that investors are trying to
reduce exposure via CDS, which doesn’t have interest rate
exposure, instead of selling their cash bonds, which do. “The big
difference between now and five years ago is dealers’ balance
sheets are much smaller, so most of the pain has been on the
buyside, not the sellside, during those moves wider,” said the
European head of credit trading at a major house.
Traders say the Main index had become a proxy to hedge
everything from emerging market risk to credit options positions
that some had previously sold in order to boost returns. As Crossover
tightened 40bp, the bonds tightened 25bp, so we captured 15bp,”
said one hedge fund manager.
* Cash/CDS basis hits record wides
The most dramatic move has been in the iTraxx sub financials
index, where many investors had taken the view that proposed
changes to the contracts to incorporate bail-in legislation
would make sub CDS worthless. When Crossover hit 520bp, we
sold the cash via TRS and went long via the index. That
makes us think that fear of higher rates isn’t the main driver.”
“It’s been very good lately. The
bellwether index was consequently 21 times over-bought compared
with iTraxx Crossover, and had outperformed most other indices
as it tightened back to 115bp on Friday (June 28).
“I don’t think this is a new normal – the basis
should narrow
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Posted on September 4, 2016
“I’m not pro sports gambling. I’m just a realist.”
Specifically, New Jersey Gov. I needed a forum to make it clear.”
With the proliferation of casinos and state lotteries, the instant gratification of the Internet and the boom in daily fantasy sports, betting was becoming part of mainstream America. While the NBA is still fighting in the courts to keep New Jersey from setting up its own sports-betting operation, three other states (New York, Indiana and South Carolina) have introduced similar bills this year, and a Minnesota state representative, Phyllis Kahn, has told ESPN that she’ll be introducing a sports-betting proposal early in this legislative session.
Nine months later, on a cold January afternoon on the 19th floor of league headquarters in Midtown Manhattan, with Hot Chocolate’s “You Sexy Thing” playing, Silver is loose and joking, all the while being prepped for his cover shoot. Gary Bettman, the longtime commissioner of the NHL, told CNN in November after Silver’s op-ed was published: “I think there needs to be some attention paid to what sports is going to represent to young people. Included in the forum, which wasn’t open to the public, were talks with law enforcement officials, gaming regulators, addiction specialists and even a former student-athlete caught up in sports gambling.
When asked about the support he’s getting from other leagues, Silver says, “I have talked to the commissioners in the other leagues about it, and I leave it to them to make any public statements they want to make on it. “One of my concerns is that I will be portrayed as pro sports betting,” he says. And publicly, it did. In those meetings, sources with direct knowledge say, contingency plans were formed in preparation for the day sports betting is legal outside of Nevada.
Leave it to Mark Cuban to be frank about that aspect of the NBA’s support for legalization. It saw how all that interest, as well as action from illegal offshore betting sites, fueled NBA fandom, and it realized it needed to have a seat at the table — the better to monitor and monetize those burgeoning passions. But the timing of the op-ed allowed him to address another seeming hypocrisy: Just one day prior to its publication, the league announced a deal with a successful daily fantasy operator called FanDuel, which boasted some $621 million in entry fees last year alone. On the one side are those who tell you that’s the way it’s always been done, and on the other are those who urge you to change and adapt.
Stern began thinking along the same lines. She was represented by Ifrah, while David Deitch, a former Justice Department attorney, represented the government. Congress should adopt a federal framework that allows states to authorize betting on professional sports, subject to strict regulatory requirements and technological safeguards.”
The timing of the column, of course, was calculated. That’s yet another reason I think it needs to be closely monitored.”
THEN CAME SILVER’S op-ed.
The NBA’s pivot point on legalized gambling appeared in a Nov. Attorney Harris Fischman examined major U.S. 13, 2014, editorial in The New York Times, penned by new commissioner Adam Silver: I believe that sports betting should be brought out of the underground and into the sunlight where it can be appropriately monitored and regulated.
In September, Silver told an audience at a Bloomberg sports business conference that expanded legalized sports betting in the U.S. “My greatest concern,” he says, “is that there will be, in essence, a hodgepodge of regulations controlling sports betting that will vary from state to state, jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and will make it increasingly difficult to monitor betting on our very own sport.”
Privately, though, the league was watching — closely — as the Vegas market and legal daily fantasy sites were growing exponentially. In 2009, the then-commissioner told Sports Illustrated, when asked if legal sports betting would be in the NBA’s best interest, “It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question no. “Then we began getting approached by sports-betting companies outside of the United States, where it’s legal, to do business with them. “As we began to stage exhibition games in Europe and China and jurisdictions where sports betting was legal, it caused me to focus more on this than I had historically,” Silver says. (One study by Nevada gaming company Club Cal Neva projected a possible windfall of $50 million for Atlantic City casinos if betting was legalized.) But the leagues — the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB — and the NCAA sued, claiming that the state was in violation of PASPA and that the perception of the integrity of the games would be damaged if New Jersey began taking legal bets.. Regardless of public positioning, all the leagues are actively planning for a new gambling reality. And when it did, it was not subtle.
The opportunity for additional streams of capital from sports betting can’t be lost on U.S. Does it become a vehicle for betting, which may in effect change the atmosphere in the arenas?”
PERHAPS THE BEST Silver can hope for from other commissioners is a new view of sports betting as a possible “frenemy.” It is tricky, after all, for the leagues to embrace something they’ve long denounced for its impact on the “integrity of the game.” It would also be naive to think that this is all about the sanctity of the results. That’s the pragmatic approach.”
Cuban has suggested that one way of monetizing that interest is to charge sportsbooks and casinos licensing fees to use the league’s data. So were politicians. Once again, the leagues sued and won. team owners. And someone who’s a realist in the business. In March, two NBA attorneys attended a mock sports-betting trial put on by gaming attorney Jeff Ifrah at iGaming North America at Planet Hollywood in Las Vegas. “Yet at the same time, we were opposing the New Jersey legislation in multiple court actions. You don’t have to be a cynic to think that the leagues and their owners want a piece of that very big betting pie.
The Donaghy revelation became the ugliest gambling scandal to hit an American professional sport since at least Pete Rose’s banishment from baseball in 1989 and perhaps since the Black Sox threw the 1919 World Series. The NBA deal also included an equity stake in the company. The best way for the league to monitor our integrity is for that betting action to move toward legal betting organizations, where it can be tracked. was “inevitable” because cash-strapped states need the revenue.
Silver says he hasn’t set a timetable for the day when we can legally bet on a Cavaliers-Heat game. I will say that certainly all of them … I’m glad Adam is putting the hypocrisy behind us and putting it all up front.”
And so after taking over for Stern last February, Silver wasted little time implementing his approach. … All of them have assigned people to study the issue intensively.
” — NBA commissioner Adam Silver
A united front among all the leagues would certainly help Silver’s cause for a federal solution. One week later, the NBA was due back in court as part of its ongoing fight to prevent New Jersey from making sports betting legal. And in New Zealand, sportsbook giant TAB paid more than $5 million last year in commissions to the leagues it takes wagers on. It studied and researched and planned behind closed doors before it made its move. “We’re still in the monitoring stage,” he says. The title of the exercise? “As Close as You Ever Want to Get to a Federally Prosecuted Sports Betting Trial.” In it, Assistant U.S. “And while I wouldn’t categorize that as sports betting, on the continuum of no betting at all and legalized betting, it’s certainly on the spectrum.”
But multiple sources with direct knowledge of meetings between the leagues believe the NHL is much more open to legalization than Bettman’s comments indicate. He’s relaxed, though not unguarded. Just 88 days into his tenure as NBA commissioner, on April 29, 2014, Silver banned Clippers owner Donald Sterling in a four-minute proclamation on national TV, his willingness to stand alone in full view.
“
So it is, then, that for now, at least, Silver seems comfortable standing alone as the only acting U.S. “In light of these domestic and global trends,” he wrote, “the laws on sports betting should be changed. District Judge Michael Shipp ruled in favor of the leagues. “But I view myself more as pro transparency. In September 2014, citing a loophole in the Department of Justice’s language about violations to PASPA, Christie issued a directive to legalize. In September 2012, the NFL convened a forum in collaboration with other pro leagues, the International Olympic Committee and the NCAA to discuss best practices, law enforcement resources and the gambling industry. MLB declined to comment for this story, and the NFL refused to even reiterate its anti-legalization stance. “As someone who attends an enormous number of games, I’m often hearing fans talking about it,” Silver says. A 2007 letter signed by all general counsels of the major sports leagues and the NCAA, including NBA vice president Rick Buchanan, stated, “The harms caused by government endorsement of sports betting far exceed the alleged benefits.”
U.S. 16 Gambling Issue. “The league and many of our teams are actively engaged in the so-called daily fantasy business,” Silver says. The illegal market across sports? Try 132 times that — an estimated $138.9 billion, according to the American Gaming Association. “We did everything possible to encourage it while publicly condemning gambling. The case is headed to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals this spring.
The bald 52-year-old man in glasses and a conservative dark suit doesn’t look like an agent of change — especially with the 1970s soul music playing in the background on the set at a recent photo shoot for The Mag. commissioner to publicly support legalized sports gambling. Actually establishing a legal framework is another. He spent time overseas growing the NBA’s brand, giving him a vantage point to see how legalized gambling worked in other countries. have assigned people in their organizations to study the issue intensively.”
The evolution of Silver as gambling realist in many ways began in 2006, after he took over the league’s international operations as deputy commissioner. There also have been other, more private confabs involving high-ranking advisers to the leagues. Chris Christie, who in 2012 began pushing to legalize sports betting in his state by challenging the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) of 1992, the federal ban on state-sponsored sports betting. As we became more of a global company, I began to think about what our policy should be here.”
I have talked to the other commissioners about it. In 2013, $1.05 billion was wagered legally on basketball, combining the professional and college levels. “We have studied the New Zealand model and other models in other jurisdictions,” he says.
This story appears in ESPN The Magazine’s Feb. Deitch prevailed.
Through it all, Silver has remained steadfast that legal sports gambling should be addressed first on the federal, not state, level. In that dark moment, the NBA could very well have hunkered down and waited for the dawn. The “defendant,” “Ginger McKenna,” was accused of facilitating illegal sports bets. “Even if they’re not betting, they’re highly aware of the betting line and over/unders.”
THE NBA’S DARKEST hour can actually be marked by a single moment, concentrated down to the uttering of a sentence. “I can tell you that this is the most serious situation and worst situation that I have ever experienced either as a fan of the NBA, a lawyer for the NBA or a commissioner of the NBA.” That was the lament of then-commissioner David Stern during a July 24, 2007, news conference announcing that referee Tim Donaghy was under federal investigation for betting on games. But Adam Silver has proved otherwise. But I think that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread — even legally.”
His time overseas coincided with the Donaghy scandal and the revelation, as Silver puts it, “of how important it is to have a way of monitoring irregular activity in our games.” He adds, “None of the systems we had in place had captured any betting by Donaghy.”
Fans weren’t the only ones talking about it. In some areas of Australia, for example, sportsbooks pay fees to leagues based on the gross revenue made off the wagering of the games. In 516 words, he diagnosed the reality of sports betting in the U.S.: Federal and state laws are not stopping anyone from betting. In England, bets can be placed on a smartphone, at a stadium kiosk or even using a TV remote control. It could have continued to treat sports betting as the enemy that for as long as anyone could remember had threatened the very fabric of the game. Or on Silver, who gained extensive knowledge of foreign revenue models during his time overseas. Subscribe today!
In the meantime, Silver is willing to take the lead on an issue that some liken to the legalization of marijuana — socially acceptable but mostly illegal.
SPORTS IS AN ongoing contest between two forces: tradition and innovation. The move made sense to many in New Jersey, where ailing gaming and racing industries were causing financial strain. That’s when Silver says he began to realize the need for a response. Billions of dollars are being illegally wagered on sports, almost all online. “I am very sensitive to people thinking that I’m not understanding of the downsides,” he says. But you can bet all interested parties — the other leagues, the states, the bookmakers, the bettors — are following the developments as closely as they would a point spread.
Studying models is one thing. “We have always known betting, fantasy leagues and daily [fantasy] sports have driven interest and viewership,” wrote the Mavericks’ owner in a recent email exchange with The Magazine. gaming laws, including PASPA and the Wire Act, which prohibits any betting activity that includes wire transmissions. “I recognize that it can be very damaging to a person or a person’s family, just like other substances of potential abuse taken to extremes. But the state didn’t give up. But that’s not to say he and the NBA are the only ones re-examining their approach. The other leagues have — at least publicly — not wavered from their anti-legalization stance after the op-ed. “I felt the need to explain why I had made other statements acknowledging that I thought sports betting should be legalized,” Silver says. And the NHL and MLB are both currently partnered with daily fantasy sports operator DraftKings.
In November 2011, New Jersey voters had overwhelmingly approved a referendum to legalize Las Vegas-style sports betting at racetracks and casinos across the state
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Posted on September 4, 2016
2015 NCAA tourney betting guide
The Bulldogs have more than enough talent to hang with Duke and Kentucky.
ATS pick: Northern Iowa -7.5
ATS pick: TBD
Wunderdog: Northeastern/Notre Dame: under 141
Using Sport Insights’ Bet Labs software, we found that tournament favorites that receive less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 86-65 ATS (+16.24 units won, 10.8 percent ROI) over the past 10 years. Besides, a lot of people think the Hoyas are overseeded; in fact, the BPI had them as a No. All that stuff aside, we can only handicap the games in front of us, and while SMU is a solid team, I am convinced that if UCLA plays like it did against Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals, the Bruins will be able to pull the upset here.
ATS pick: Arkansas -6.5
Westgate line: Iowa -2
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Davidson
Tuley: Everyone loves picking No. And Mick Cronin’s absence won’t be as magnified with Purdue playing a nearly identical brand of basketball.
South | West | Midwest | East South Regional
No. 2 offensive team in the nation. It took time, but Maryland’s offense looked improved the back half of the campaign. Notre Dame
2. Northeastern
Wichita St. NC State is also 31st in the nation in rebounds. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. MAC opponents), but struggled to keep opposing teams off the glass. Arizona
Harvard plus-8.5 vs. 12 seed). 4 Georgetown Hoyas vs. However, I’ve seen this before where a team sneaks into the tournament and vindicates the selection committee (most notably VCU in 2011). 11 Boise St./Dayton winner
Westgate line: Northern Iowa -7.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Wyoming
No. I will have some on Harvard plus-525 over North Carolina and Belmont plus-1200 over Virginia, but I’ll probably pass on Texas Southern and Lafayette at plus-2500 apiece over Arizona and Villanova.
Jay Kornegay’s top public teams
Tuley: This game is a contrast in styles, as St. While bettors overwhelmingly tend to take the favorite during the regular season, the NCAA tournament is a rare time when the public jumps all over the underdog.
Tuley: This line climbed from UNC minus-9 to minus-10, and I liked it more and more — until it got bet back to 8.5. No. But fear not: ESPN’s Chalk college basketball betting experts are here to help. Whatever the reason, our historical archive reveals a distinct change in public betting behavior.
Utah would be the only tourney future I see to hold a little bit of value.
Tuley: Gonzaga is hardly even considered a mid-major anymore; instead, it’s the poster child for programs like North Dakota State, which upset Oklahoma last year in the Seattle subregional. We’ve asked our experienced group of wiseguys, including Dave Tuley, Andrew Lange, Dave Solar, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports and Sal Selvaggio what they’re looking at when handicapping the bracket and picking tourney games.
Cincinnati plus-1 vs. No. 8 San Diego St. North Carolina
VCU plus-2 vs. The reason for this is if your team gets to the Final Four and you want to hedge, you’re gonna be paying a huge price to hedge with Kentucky on the money line.
ATS pick: Stephen F. No. 6 Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona
3. No. Albany got here by winning the America East, but didn’t step up in competition much. No. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. ACC opponents). I’m not buying this one. +1*
Midwest Regional
Westgate line: Ohio St. But I’m going contrarian here. No. They have a similar profile to the Mountaineers with poor outside shooting (31.9 percent 3-pointers) but the ability to hit the offensive boards (36.5 percent). The Terrapins rely an awful lot on Dez Wells and Melo Trimble, and I would expect Valpo to play some zone. Unfortunately, this system would also include teams that were an underdog during their last conference tournament game. No. 3 Iowa St. Duke
7. The public has mostly bet against UCLA, as this line opened SMU minus-2 at several books and is up to 3.5 at most books and even 4 at a few as of late Monday night. Purdue
West Virginia minus-4.5 vs. No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. This team is 18-7-1 ATS after a loss, and 23-9-1 ATS on neutral courts. If you’re playing any other team and don’t want to parlay game to game (maybe you’re betting in Vegas and won’t be back after the opening weekend), bet the odds to win the regional (see below) instead of the odds to win the whole thing. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Austin is justifiably getting a lot of support as a live underdog, as it upset VCU last year in this round and a lot of people remember that and are looking for a repeat. It almost always yields a better payoff, plus it gives you the option along the way to pull out profits or to stop altogether if there’s a key injury or something.
No. No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys
Championship title odds
Best title value bets
No. Stephen F. John’s Red Storm
Tuley: This isn’t like one of the Louisville teams we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent years, and they look fade-able, but it looks like the committee did the Cardinals a favor with this seeding and matchup. Wisconsin is tops in the Big Ten in points allowed, second in free throws, second in field goal shooting and rebound margin. It all looks so easy that I hope it’s not one of those things that are too good to be true.
Tuley: I don’t expect Texas Southern to give Arizona too much of a scare as they’re overmatched talent-wise and don’t have a superstar or even a true big man. The Badgers come into the tourney fresh off a Big Ten title, winning every game by double digits. They’ve lost two games all year: an OT loss at Arizona and a 3-point loss to BYU, the No. But except for Lawrence Alexander, NDSU is far inferior to the team that nearly made the Sweet 16 last year, and frankly, it wouldn’t be in the field if it hadn’t won the Summit Conference tournament. Indiana
Maryland minus-4 vs. This is the best and most balanced Gonzaga team yet, playing in its backyard, so I can’t get on the NDSU bandwagon.
Tuley: Every year, there are a few teams that get snubbed or a few teams that get overseeded or underseeded and cause heated discussions.
Tuley: Georgia State is an interesting underdog as it plays well on the defensive end, holding 11 opponents under 30 percent shooting this season. Below is a list of the best and worst coaches to bet on in the NCAA tourney this year and their corresponding ATS tourney records.
Wunderdog: Defense is key in March and Oklahoma State has it, as the Cowboys finished fourth in the Big 12 in points allowed, and fifth in field goal shooting percentage allowed this season. However, we do have a Tier 2 match on Oklahoma State. UC Irvine has twin towers in 7-6 Mamadou Ndiaye and 7-2 Ioannis Dimakopoulos, but Louisville still has the matchup’s two best players in Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell despite all the players the Cardinals have lost. It’s that lack of depth that has me looking to play against them in the next round, but not in this one.
ATS pick: Notre Dame -12
No. LSU
No. On offense, they are strong in free throw shooting (76 percent), which is always a plus when games are close. Michigan State
9. 16 North Florida/Robert Morris
Perhaps bettors consider all tournament participants to be upper-echelon teams and are content taking the points regardless of opponent. 10 when a lot of people would argue those should be switched. This is one of those instances, and it provides a very strong favorite laying a very reasonable price.
Wisconsin minus-18 vs. A lot of NCAA underdogs have used a stellar defense to pull upsets or cover spreads against more athletic teams. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs.
No. 2 seed Duke last year). 10 Davidson Wildcats
In last week’s conference tournament betting guide, we detailed a system that focuses on large underdogs in low-scoring games, and explained how public betting patterns change during the postseason. Oregon leans too much on offense, as the Ducks were 10th in the Pac-12 in points allowed and ninth in rebounding defense this season. No. minus-1 vs. 7 Wichita State Shockers vs.
Most profitable tournament coaches since 2005
Westgate line: SMU -2
PickCenter consensus pick: 67 percent picked SMU
No. If Harvard can dictate the pace, the experienced Crimson could pull another upset or at least keep this within the spread.
Cincinnati plus-1 vs. 11 seed and pretty far removed from the bubble). 15 New Mexico St Aggies
No. Bison
Wunderdog: NC State is on a nice 6-2 SU run coming into the Big Dance. No. Indiana is a smoke-and-mirrors team that beat up on the weak and shot its way to wins at home — not a recipe for postseason success. 15 Belmont Bruins
ATS pick: TBD
No. The Great Danes lost 64-60 to Providence and 75-59 to UNLV. 5 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Larry Krystkowiak is one of the best coaches in the game and will hold an advantage over most on the sidelines. 12 Buffalo Bulls
No. However, I’m really high on Utah with its inside-outside tandem of guard Delon Wright and 7-foot center Jakob Poeltl, and this number looks a little short (again, because of the support for SFA as an ever-popular No. This isn’t your typical Valpo team, as the Crusaders play at a plodding pace and win with defense (0.94 points per possession allowed). Austin team in the first round, but the Utes play a very good brand of basketball that fits the tournament setting. The Cowboys come in off a bad offensive game against Oklahoma, but they are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 50 points in their previous game. I don’t think Buffalo will be overwhelmed, as they held halftime leads on the road at Kentucky and Wisconsin, but West Virginia is an extremely hard team for which to prepare. 9 LSU Tigers
ATS pick: Texas Southern +21.5*
Westgate line: San Diego St. No. Lafayette did play at Villanova in last season’s opener and was tied with eight minutes to play before losing by 16 points (75-59). No. Albany is on an 0-5 ATS run and will get stomped by the talented and well-coached Sooners.
Enjoy and good luck.
ATS picks for every game
Westgate line: Gonzaga -16.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked North Dakota St. Wyoming made a nice run through the Mountain West Conference to steal a bid, but Northern Iowa has moved beyond that “Cinderella” category into a team that wouldn’t be a shock if it made the Sweet 16 (in fact, an argument could be made that the Panthers should be the No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
Lange: How is either team going to score? Both squads are tremendous at packing the paint, contesting shots and rebounding. Spartans vs. 2 Duke in 2008, but this year’s team was 25th in the nation from the floor at 47.6 percent, and won its last seven games, including an upset of Murray State to steal the OVC’s automatic bid. 3 Baylor Bears vs. However, it troubles me that this line is so short (years ago, this would be well into double digits) and I’m just afraid that in the end, Baylor will win out. Utah can play with anybody sans Kentucky in this field.
Tuley: A lot of people are picking this game as this year’s mega-upset (like Mercer over No. Belmont is probably most known for nearly beating No. No. They challenged themselves in nonleague play with games at Wichita State, Wyoming, St. 4. Another thing working for the underdog is that Lafayette coach Fran O’Hanlon is a Nova alumnus and there’s a chance the Wildcats won’t want to embarrass O’Hanlon by running up the score.
Westgate line: Texas -1.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked Texas
ATS pick: Wichita State -6
Westgate line: Arizona -21.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Arizona
Westgate line: Kansas -11
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Kansas
Tuley: Here’s another 5-12 matchup, with the public looking to the underdog to pull an upset. Georgetown
UCLA plus-2 vs. They also have a tremendous amount of size, with a frontcourt that features players standing 7-3, 6-10, 6-9 and 6-8. Neither team will shy away from the transition game, but the opportunities will be limited, especially for Purdue as the Bearcats boast one of the best transition defenses I’ve seen this season. Seven-footer Frank Kaminsky, 6-7 Nigel Hayes and 6-8 Sam Dekker are a handful for any frontcourt and will overmatch Coastal Carolina, whose top rebounder is 6-7 Badou Diagne. -1.5
West Regional
To be added after the North Florida-Robert Morris “First Four” game on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.
Andrew Lange: Bettors are faced with handicapping a dreaded “non-boarded” team here, as New Mexico State won the oddball WAC. This team is 312th in the nation in assists and its top rebounder is 6-6 Sam Rowley. No. I don’t see any potential matchup where I’ll be fading them, starting with the opener, as UAB needed the home court to win the Conference USA tournament as the fourth seed to earn its dance ticket. Valparaiso
Westgate line: Providence -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick:
Tuley: I have two things to say about betting futures.
Westgate line: Duke -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick: TBD
Coaching is a huge part of any sport, but particularly in college basketball. Oklahoma State has excellent balance with 6-7 senior Le’Bryan Nash (17 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and 6-8 senior Michael Cobbins up front, plus junior Phil Forte III (15 PGG). Now, it’s a sliding scale. However, the Wildcats are only 2-3 ATS when laying 20 points or more, so this seems to be the tipping point. Coastal Carolina
Westgate line: Notre Dame -12
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Notre Dame
Tuley: UCLA’s inclusion by the selection committee was the most vilified decision on Selection Sunday (especially when the Bruins were given a No. 7 seed and Ohio State at No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. Aztecs vs. As an underdog under Steve Alford, the Bruins are 17-7 hitting the under.
Westgate line: Xavier -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick: TBD
Maddux Sports:
ATS pick: UCLA +2*
ATS pick: VCU +2*
Tuley: Davidson has its best team since Stephen Curry led it to the Elite Eight in 2008, and this team might be even better overall. You’re going to run into situations in the tournament where hot shooting beats good defense, but in this instance, I want my money on the far more complete basketball team. Some will say the Shockers are being punished for losing to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley semifinals. 9 St. No. Wisconsin
6. 13 Eastern Washington Eagles
Lange: First thing’s first: Can Buffalo hang on to the basketball and rebound on the defensive end? No team in the MAC comes close to resembling West Virginia’s chaotic ways. 13 Valparaiso Crusaders
ATS pick: Butler +1.5
Westgate line: Maryland -4
PickCenter consensus pick: 69 percent picked Maryland
ATS pick: Gonzaga -16.5
Westgate line: Baylor -7
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked Baylor
No. 6 Providence Friars vs. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys
I think it’s important not to punish NMSU too much for its conference affiliation, as the program recruits well and has been on solid footing throughout the Marvin Menzies era. Gonzaga 6-foot-10 freshman Domantas Sabonis (9.5 PPG, 7 RPG), 7-1 junior Przemek Karnowski (11 PPG) and 6-10 junior Kyle Wiltjer (16.7 PPG) anchor an NBA-like frontcourt, while senior guard Kevin Pangos (11.5 PPG, 5 APG) gets things moving. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. -4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 70 percent picked Michigan St. Iowa
Lafayette plus-23 vs.
ATS pick: Belmont +16*
The table below summarizes the results of our analysis.
Best and worst coaches to bet on
ATS pick: Oklahoma -12*
No. 8 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis (yes, he won over all those Kentucky blue-chippers) and his teammates love to run, and I just don’t see Wofford keeping pace.
To be added after the Boise State-Dayton “First Four” game on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.
No. The Zags just won the West Coast Conference by winning two games 79-61 and 91-75. They have great balance, with a strong frontcourt, while 6-4 junior Buddy Hield (17.5 PPG, 5 RPG) and 6-4 junior Isaiah Cousins (12.2 PPG, 5 RPG) run the backcourt and lead the team in scoring. Interesting side note in that for all the flack Barnes and the Longhorns have taken, they have an identical 17-13 ATS record as Butler. No. No. Wisconsin is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five NCAA tournament games. Ohio St. As a team, the Huskies shoot 52.9 percent from 2, 38.8 percent from 3 and 72.4 percent from the free throw line. Not one I’m going to overthink here, as Butler is worth a play as an underdog, preferably at plus-2.
Westgate line: Utah -6
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked Stephen F. A year ago at this time they played American in the opening game and won 75-35, allowing only 29 percent shooting.
ATS pick: Harvard +8.5*
UCLA/SMU: under 134
Tuley: As we’ve all seen over the years, when an underdog is live during March Madness, they often pull the outright upset instead of just covering. Buffalo
Wisconsin minus-18 vs. The Ducks allowed 54.5 percent shooting the last game, an 80-52 loss to Arizona, and are 2-6 ATS following a loss of more than 20 points.
No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky
4. 13 Harvard Crimson
No. Furthermore, they’re playing their best basketball of the season right now, winning the Atlantic 10 title, and they will be taking on a turnover-prone Buckeyes team.
UCLA averaged more than 80 points per game at home this season, but just 62.7 on the road — a difference of more than 18 points per game. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters
Westgate line: Wisconsin -18
PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked Wisconsin
ATS pick: Iowa St. Austin Lumberjacks
ATS pick: San Diego St. The Wolfpack match up well with an LSU squad that is on a 6-4 SU run, bowing out fast in the SEC tourney (a 73-70 OT loss to Auburn as a 9-point favorite). Offensive rebounding and garbage points are musts for Butler, because Texas is a fairly strong defensive team in the half court. While managing egos seems to be the largest challenge for NBA coaches, imparting fundamentals and turning five talented individuals into one cohesive unit are just two of the struggles facing college coaches. However, this puts Shaka Smart and his VCU program in the underdog role, where they’re more comfortable. The Mountaineers’ success in the “first meetings” in Big 12 play (6-3 SU/ATS) suggests we look their way.
The second is specific to this NCAA tournament, with such a huge favorite in Kentucky. When this team was also an underdog in its previous game, the number of past matches is reduced dramatically, but we’re left with a 27-11 ATS record (+14.5 units, 38.2 percent ROI).
Andrew Lange:
Our theory posits that when an underdog pulls off an unlikely upset, square bettors have difficulty accepting the team’s new role as a favorite. 16 Lafayette Leopards
What this guide contains:
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. Austin
Westgate line: Louisville -9
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked UC-Irvine
Tuley: I’m conflicted on this game. And while the level of competition in the Colonial (the 19th-rated conference, according to Sagarin) wasn’t all that stiff, Notre Dame isn’t known for its defensive prowess (1.07 points per possession allowed vs.
ATS pick: Eastern Washington +7.5*
ATS pick: TBD
As the spreads get higher, the points are more likely to come into play and I’ll bet a smaller percentage on the money line: Georgia plus-210 over Michigan State and Eastern Washington plus-280 over Georgetown. (Note: I am considering playing Georgia State plus-4.5 in the first half, though that still seems a little short.
During the regular season, a majority of public bettors take the underdog in just 17.65 percent of games; that figure reaches 23.82 percent for the NCAA tournament. John’s will likely stick with its four-guard lineup and push the pace while San Diego State will try to slow it down and control the game with its huge front line — especially compared to SJU with just 6-foot-6 Sir’Dominic Pointer to match up with 6-10 Skylar Spencer, 6-8 Winston Shepard and 6-7 J.J. 7 VCU Rams vs. 11 BYU/Ole Miss winner
Westgate line: NC State -1
PickCenter consensus pick: 64 percent picked NC State
Wunderdog: Gonzaga (18-1 at Westgate, bet down to 15-1)
Wunderdog: Wisconsin got off to a great start this season and hasn’t slowed down. No. 16 Hampton/Manhattan winner
Westgate line: Oregon -1
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Oregon
Tuley: Villanova is for real, and hard to bet against at 24-9 ATS. Oregon
Oklahoma minus-12 vs. The same can be said for Purdue’s two 7-footers, Isaac Haas and A.J. 15 Texas Southern Tigers
Westgate line: Villanova -23
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Lafayette
Westgate line: Wichita State -6
PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent picked Wichita St.
Eastern Washington plus-7.5 vs. Notre Dame can score, but both teams play solid defense, allowing points in the 60s. 10 Indiana Hoosiers
By David Solar, SportsInsights.com
Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma St. He will not get outcoached. Coach Lon Kruger is outstanding, knowing how to get his team focused and prepared, and he’s very strong at in-game adjustments. 15 North Dakota St. The Wolfpack are a tough matchup for a lot of teams with their three-guard attack of 6-3 junior Trevor Lacey (15.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG), 6-5 senior Ralston Turner (13.2 PPG) and sophomore Anthony Barber (12 PPG). Mary’s, Baylor and Colorado State (average loss: 8.8 PPG). Northern Iowa
No. North Carolina has every possible edge, but the Tar Heels don’t always show up, and they were just 14-13-1 ATS before finishing the season 5-2 ATS. No. The Tigers have to be feeling the role of Cinderella, and I think they can stay within the huge number.
No. But I don’t expect Arizona to rack up a ton of points and run up the score, either. 2 Virginia Cavaliers vs. O’Brien. The Utes are underseeded by most respected metrics, and the committee didn’t do them any favors matching them up against a tough Stephen F. When dealing with mid-major teams, I’m hesitant to put much stock into nonconference play as a vast majority of games against power conference foes are played on the road. Villanova
Belmont plus-16 vs. The Red Storm will really miss suspended 6-10 shot-blocker Chris Obekpa. Statistically, the Bulls are fairly sound in the turnover department (15.2 percent vs.
No. No. underachiever (Texas). The Sooners are also on a 10-3 SU run, and are 23rd in the nation in rebounds. The issue is that Northeastern hasn’t faced an offense even remotely close to that of the Irish. No. In the end this is a very even matchup, but I think the Bearcats are still the play, even being bet to favoritism.
No. 14 Northeastern Huskies
Lange: This is a classic case of overachiever (Butler) vs. No. When facing a winning team this season, UCLA was 17-6 hitting the under. 1 Villanova Wildcats vs. Austin +6
ATS pick: Maryland -4
No. The Badgers are 42-20-1 ATS in nonconference games and 20-8-1 ATS in their past 29 neutral-site games. Virginia
Georgia plus-4.5 vs. 14 Georgia St Panthers
ATS pick: TBD
Tuley: Well, this region is looking rather chalky so far, but I believe that ends here (though I do have some trepidation as Eastern Washington is becoming such a trendy pick). No. With public support shifting, we theorized that there would be value fading these so-called “trendy underdogs.”
To be added after the Hampton/Manhattan “First Four” game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio.
Tuley: I liked Iowa State last year and was bummed when the Cyclones ran into another hot team that I was in love with (UConn) in the Sweet 16. Kansas
10. The higher the spreads go, the less convinced I am that the underdog will win outright, plus the more the books will shave off the true odds, so I won’t bet as much on the money line. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. 6 Butler Bulldogs vs. The American has some weak teams, but I give the Bearcats small edges on both sides of the ball. 9 Purdue Boilermakers
ATS pick: West Virginia -4.5
No. 11 UCLA Bruins
No. This is a long-winded way of saying that the committee put VCU in at a No. -12
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked Iowa St. It’s a veteran team, too. Cincinnati chews up tons of clock trying to get the ball in the paint to Octavius Ellis. If he’s not fully back in form (and he didn’t look like it in 26 scoreless minutes in the ACC tourney, including a miss on the possible game winner against North Carolina), that opens the door more for the Bruins.
Pick: over 131
No. Arkansas won 10 of its last 13 games, and two of those losses were to Kentucky. SMU
Davidson plus-2 vs. 12 Stephen F. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. If bettors are willing to take a 12-seed over a 5-seed straight up, it makes sense that they would also be willing to bet the 12-seed getting points.
Westgate line: Georgetown -7.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 73 percent picked Eastern Washington
No. Anyway, the added rest should help Gaines and put Georgia as a live underdog.
No. No. SMU held opponents to fewer than 60 points per game this season — ranked in the top 20 in the nation. 7 Michigan St. The Bulldogs held a plus-7.3 rebounds-per-game edge in Big East play — 3.9 rebounds per game better than second-best Providence. Cyclones vs. 12 Wofford Terriers
Texas Southern plus-21.5 vs. For all of Texas’ length and size, the Longhorns were a solid, but hardly impressive plus-3.9 rebounds per game vs. Coach Mike Brey is 11-3 hitting the under in NCAA tournament games at Notre Dame.
Dave Tuley:
Westgate line: Michigan St. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. The oddsmakers certainly think so, as they made Ohio State the favorite despite the seedings. The Tigers turned it over 17 times to Auburn’s attacking guards, and this is an equally tough backcourt matchup.
Bettors can also use the public betting trends available on ESPN Chalk’s Live Odds page to track favorites receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.
ATS pick: NC State -1*
NCAA tournament teams, 2014-15 records
o picks for every NCAA tourney game on Thursday and Friday
o ATS records for every tourney team
o the best 2015 NCAA title value bets
o Vegas handicappers’ best ATS bets, upset picks and over/under bets
o the best system bets from David Solar of Sports Insights
o the best and worst coaches in the tourney to bet on
o the top 10 public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
ATS pick: Lafayette +23*
Westgate line: Iowa St. But for the Aggies, it’s really all we have to go off considering they haven’t played anyone even remotely capable since beating UC Irvine at home in early January.
Westgate line: West Virginia -4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked West Virginia
Wunderdog Sports:
Lange: Arguably the best attribute to have with a double-digit underdog in the NCAA tournament is high-caliber shooters, and on paper, Northeastern has just that. Since Butler left in 2011, the last three Big Dance participants from the Horizon lost by margins of 15, 11 and 20 in the first round.
With so few past system picks on the third tier of this system, it’s no surprise that there are no current game matches for the opening-round games. 5 Utah Utes vs. Hammons. They also scored a favorable venue with Omaha and a short four-hour drive north from their campus.
Wunderdog: You know what you’re going to get out of Oklahoma. Villanova obviously has the talent edge, but it’s not a size mismatch like we usually see with 1-16 matchups. 5 Northern Iowa Panthers vs. No. 4 seed, though it’s a moot point since they’re on a collision course with Louisville regardless).
To be added after the BYU-Mississippi “First Four” game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio.
Selvaggio: Utah (75-1 at CG Technology; 60-1 at Westgate)
The first would be that instead of betting the fixed-odd futures to win the title, bet the money line in the first game your team plays and roll over your winnings through all six games. If anyone asks if I think my dog has a chance to win outright, I’m going to say, “Of course!” On most of my plays, I’ll add a little something on the money line. Gonzaga
8. Sure, the Super Bowl may take a larger handle than any individual game, but the cumulative number of bets taken during March Madness dwarfs even the mighty beast known as the NFL playoffs.
ATS pick: Louisville -9
The 10 teams, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and his staff, that are the most popular teams to wager on as the tourney begins.
Tuley: This line has risen from 4.5 to 5.5 since wagering opened Sunday night, which isn’t too surprising as everyone knows how MSU coach Tom Izzo gets his teams to improve as the season progresses (and we all saw how the Spartans took Wisconsin to OT in the Big Ten title game). 14 UAB Blazers
ATS pick: Baylor -7
. -1.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked San Diego St. Everyone is buying into the hype of the nation’s leading scorer, Tyler Harvey (22.9 PPG), and that the Eagles get to play in their home state while Georgetown has to travel all the way across the country from the “other” Washington. The Terps aren’t built to win by big margins, but this price appears cheap. However, I think what gives Belmont a chance to at least cover is that Virginia’s leading scorer, Justin Anderson, is coming back slowly from a broken finger and an appendectomy. No. At the time of publication, OSU was receiving just 24 percent of spread bets.
Lange: It’s the time of year when identifying the better defensive team in a short-lined game puts you in solid position to cash tickets. Iowa has a big size advantage, but unless Davidson goes stone cold, I don’t see the Hawkeyes being able to use that enough (at 2 points at a time) to keep up with the Wildcats.
Below are the ATS records for every NCAA tournament team this season, along with each team’s SU record and average margin of cover.
No. In nonconference play, a number of NMSU’s games were in the high 60s to low 70s, possession-wise. Kansas is at its best in transition, and I would expect it to push the pace and pull New Mexico State along.
ATS pick: Georgia +4.5*
ATS pick: Cincinnati -1
East Regional
No. I say they caught a break by facing super-soft Indiana and a likely date against a reeling Kansas squad in the second round. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. Oftentimes, those “snubbed” teams go on to lose right away in the NIT and the “overseeded” teams live up to their billing, while “underseeded” teams put in disappointing showings. 12 seeds against No. The team was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their absence.
No. Purdue
Notre Dame minus-12 vs. However, the one thing in Butler’s favor is its ability to win the battle on the boards. SDSU’s inside game and stubborn defense (the Aztecs allow just 53.1 points per game, ranked second in the nation) should get the job done.
Westgate line: Oklahoma -12
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked Oklahoma
No.
Westgate line: Kentucky -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick: TBD
Lange: From a betting perspective, the Terrapins went from underrated heading into Big Ten play (4-2 ATS start) to overrated after sweeping Michigan State (which went on a 1-8 ATS slide), and then back to underrated following six straight covers heading into the Big Dance. -2
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Ohio St. As much as I and most bettors despise Rick Barnes, it’s important to recognize that the Longhorns have the better personnel in this matchup. 11 Texas Longhorns
This is a high total — the third highest on the board in the opening round. The WAC was one of the slowest conferences in the country, with the “fastest” team averaging 61.6 possessions per game in league play. Iowa State
5. -12
Mark Few has had a lot of great players and teams at Gonzaga, but this may be his best. 6 SMU Mustangs vs. Tyler Kalinoski was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, but he’s far from the lone gunman as Davidson averages more than 10 3-pointers made (hitting at better than 40 percent from long range) and more than 80 points per game. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. WVU’s Juwan Staten (knee) and Gary Browne (ankle) are still nursing injuries, but expected to play. Michigan St. The Cowboys lost their previous game against Oklahoma and opened as a 1-point favorite against Oregon. No. We all know the Harvard kids are smart, but Crimson have also won opening-round games each of the past two years. And I like the public dog, too. minus-6 vs. No. Big 12 opponents. No. 14 Albany Great Danes
ATS pick: Davidson +2*
With more than 9.2 quintillion possible NCAA tournament brackets, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. The Bulldogs obviously missed him on both ends of the floor, and it probably kept them from winning that game and finishing second in the league tourney to Kentucky. Against the spread, I’ll stick with a recommendation on the Lumberjacks plus the points, but I’m not sure I’ll play it myself, so I can’t make it a best bet.
Westgate line: Cincy -1
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent picked Cincinnati
ATS pick: Oklahoma St. To eliminate these teams, we focused solely on teams that won their previous game. For short-priced dogs, I might just bet only the money line with Davidson plus-120 over Iowa, VCU plus-145 over Ohio State or UCLA plus-150 over SMU, as I’m basically picking them because I believe they will win.
1. 5 (and for good reason), but I think the oddsmakers had this right when they opened Northern Iowa as a 7.5-point favorite. No. This addition leads to a 12-2 ATS record with +9.45 units won and a 67.5 percent ROI.
One reason for this phenomenon may be that bettors are used to taking upsets in their brackets, making them more likely to gravitate toward the underdog. Albany
NC State minus-1 vs. 8 Oregon Ducks vs. The state of college basketball — slower, and lower scoring — makes it so “superior” teams aren’t always asked to cover big numbers. That worked out well for me, but this year I’m hoping to be able to back Iowa State on a deeper run with Georges Niang & Co. 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
To summarize our handicappers’ best bets (lines are from the Westgate SuperBook as of Tuesday morning):
Westgate line: Arkansas -6.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Wofford
Westgate line: Virginia -16
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Belmont
More money hits the market during the NCAA tournament than any other time in the sports betting calendar. Texas Southern comes in with 11 straight wins and covered the first two games in the SWAC tourney before winning but failing to cover in the title game, though that was a weird case (their opponent, Southern, was put on probation so the Tigers were going to be going dancing regardless of the outcome). 10 Georgia Bulldogs
Least profitable tournament coaches since 2005
Westgate line: North Carolina -8.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent picked North Carolina
ATS pick: Wisconsin -18*
Teams I would consider: Iowa State at 9-2 to win the South and Baylor at 10-1 to win the West.
Fading the trendy underdog
No. Georgia was on the bubble and secured its spot in the field by beating South Carolina in the SEC tournament, then sat second-leading scorer Kenny Gaines in the next game against Arkansas. 6 seed instead of a No
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Posted on September 1, 2016
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Posted on September 1, 2016
Research and Markets: Research Report – Global Online Gambling & Betting Market 2014
In
Australia, which leads the world in terms of per person gambling, online
sports betting and gambling has been growing by over 30% annually, while
the growth of the total gambling market does not exceed 5%.
Regional variations in legislation and acceptance of online gambling and
betting
Product Information:
- The author’s international employees research and filter all sources
and translate relevant information into English. For example, a quarter of poker
players chose to bet on unregulated networks.
- William Hill Online
In North America, online gambling was legalized in three US states by
early 2014, with online gambling revenues surging to millions in the
first months of legal operation.
Europe has been a leader in adopting regulation regarding online
gambling, but as the activity spreads, new measures are being enacted.
.
Research and Markets is the world’s leading source for international
market research reports and market data. The global online gambling market has a current value
estimated at a medium double digit number in billions of Euros, with
growth expected between +7 and 10% annually in the next few years.
- Paddy Power
In the largest Latin American market, Brazil, gambling and betting is
forbidden except for horse racing. In North America and major Asian
countries online real-money games are yet awaiting progress in
regulation. As a result companies get a precise and unbiased impression of the
market situation.
The spread of online betting and gambling is forcing governments to act
to regulate. In
South Africa, online gambling awaits legalization in 2014.
Companies Mentioned
Online gambling and betting is spreading in the Asia-Pacific region. Progress in online betting regulation in Germany is
expected in 2014, as several operators have applied for the first online
sports betting licenses.
- These market reports inform top managers about recent market trends
and assist with strategic company decisions
- Bwin.Party
The regulatory landscape on online gambling and betting is varied. The first
regulated online gambling website in Kenya was launched in 2013. This ensures that the
content of the original studies is correctly interpreted.
- PokerStars
- Betfair Group
About Research and Markets
- The authors provide secondary market research: By using various
sources of information they ensure maximum objectivity for all obtained
data. We provide you with the latest
data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top
companies, new products and the latest trends.
- The analyses, statistical reports and forecasts are only based on
reliable sources including national and international statistical
offices, industry and trade associations, business reports, business and
company databases, journals, company registries and news portals.
- Ladbrokes
Trends in online gambling and betting.
Italy has one of the most advanced regulatory arrangements regarding
online gambling in Europe.
The authors observe: while land-based lottery and casinos still dominate
the gambling scene, online real-money gambling and betting are growing
rapidly.
Regulation of online gambling and betting in Germany and Russia lag some
of their neighbours. However, offshore gambling websites
are popular among Brazilian gamblers, who spend several hundreds of EUR
million annually on offshore sports betting sites.
DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/pwjr2j/global_online)
has announced the addition of the “Global
Online Gambling & Betting Market 2014″ report to their
offering.
Global Online Gambling and Betting Market 2014 depicts the latest trends
and developments in the field. In the USA, online gambling is legal only in three states
and in many Asian countries gambling and betting is allowed only in
casino resorts.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/pwjr2j/global_online
In France, online gambling and betting has been legal since 2010, but
many gamblers turn to illegal sites. Mobile gambling is expected to grow at double-digit
rates and to reach over 40% of the total online gambling market by 2018,
as the number of mobile gambling users increases by a hundred million.
Online gambling is only starting to emerge in Africa. The
majority of Western European countries have some laws in place to
channel online gambling and betting. Among the findings of the reports
researchers is that the online gambling and betting segment is
increasing, enhanced by the spread of smartphones and tablet computers. Total online gambling revenue in Italy
recently reached a high number in hundreds of millions of Euros, with
poker constituting the largest segment.
- 888 Holdings
The leading online gambling and betting companies worldwide include
PokerStars, Bwin.Party, William Hill Online, each of which annually
generate online revenues of over EUR 0.5 billion.
The major trends in online gambling and betting globally are mobile and
social gambling