When the San Antonio Spurs host the Memphis Grizzlies at Frost Bank Center on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the game isn’t just another NBA matchup—it’s a pivot point shaped by absence, expectation, and a betting public that’s wildly out of sync with reality. The Spurs, 10-4 on the season and 7-2 at home, are favored by 5.5 to 6.5 points. But here’s the twist: their star, Victor Wembanyama, may not play. And that changes everything.
The Odds Tell One Story. The Roster Tells Another.
Dimers.com’s 10,000-game simulation gives the Spurs a 71% win probability, projecting a 120-114 final. Fox Sports and TeamRankings.com echo similar lines: Spurs by 5.5, total points 233.5. Action Network says 72% of bets and cash are on San Antonio to cover. But if Wembanyama is out—something Scores24 explicitly notes, citing the team’s leader being absent—the Spurs’ defense, which ranks third in the league, suddenly looks vulnerable. He’s not just a shot-blocker; he’s the anchor of their transition game, their rim protection, their psychological edge. Without him, their 118.8 points per game average becomes a mirage. Their 5.5 blocks per game? That’s half his contribution.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 4-11 overall, 1-6 on the road. They shoot 43% from the field—dead last in efficiency. Their offense sputters. But here’s what the stats don’t say: in their last seven road games, they’ve covered a +13.5 spread six times. In their last 11 meetings with San Antonio, they’ve gone over 111.5 points ten times. That’s not luck. That’s resilience. And it’s exactly why Scores24 is bold enough to predict a Grizzlies win with an +8.5 spread. They’re not picking Memphis to win outright. They’re picking them to fight like cornered animals.
Home Court vs. Heartbeat
The Frost Bank Center has been a fortress for the Spurs this season. They’re averaging 120.9 points at home. When they score over 119.8, they’re 7-1 against the spread. Their home moneyline record as favorites? 5-2. But home advantage doesn’t mean much when your best player is on the bench. The Spurs’ defense isn’t just good—it’s built around Wembanyama’s length and timing. Without him, they revert to a patchwork unit. The Grizzlies, for all their flaws, thrive in chaos. Ja Morant may be out, but Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. know how to exploit mismatches in half-court sets. They don’t need flash. They need space. And without Wembanyama, the paint opens up like a door left unlocked.
On the other side, the Grizzlies’ 27.4 assists per game rank ninth in the NBA. That’s not a fluke. It’s structure. They move the ball. They find shooters. And with the Spurs potentially playing smaller lineups, Memphis’ guards could feast. Their 43.6 rebounds per game? That’s not elite—but it’s enough when opponents aren’t crashing the glass with Wembanyama’s intensity.
What the Numbers Won’t Show You
The betting public is leaning hard on the Spurs. And they’re right to be cautious—the Spurs are the better team on paper. But betting trends don’t account for injuries that haven’t been officially confirmed. The Spurs haven’t issued a statement. No practice reports. No coach’s presser. Just whispers. And in the NBA, whispers can be louder than headlines.
Look at the totals: 232.5 to 234.5. Most models predict an under. Fox Sports even recommends the under. But if Wembanyama is out, the Spurs’ offense slows. The Grizzlies won’t light it up, but they won’t collapse either. Expect a grind. A physical, low-percentage, four-quarter slugfest. The final score? Likely under 230. The cover? That’s the real question.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Box Score
This isn’t just about who wins on Tuesday. It’s a litmus test for the Spurs’ identity. Are they a team built around one transcendent talent? Or do they have the depth to survive without him? The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are rebuilding with grit. They’ve lost four straight on the road. But they’ve lost close games. They’ve lost to contenders. They haven’t quit. That matters. In a league where parity is king, games like this separate contenders from pretenders—and expose teams that are one star away from being average.
And let’s not forget: the Spurs have won three straight games against the spread when scoring over 119.8. But they haven’t done it without Wembanyama. Not once this season. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a pattern.
What’s Next?
By tip-off, we’ll know if Wembanyama is active. If he’s out, the line should move toward +7.5 for Memphis. If he plays, the Spurs are a solid play—especially if they start fast. But if he’s sidelined and the Spurs stumble out of the gate? The Grizzlies will smell blood. And they won’t let go.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Victor Wembanyama definitely out for the Spurs vs. Grizzlies game?
As of November 18, 2025, no official announcement has been made by the San Antonio Spurs regarding Wembanyama’s status. However, Scores24’s prediction explicitly cites his absence as a key factor, and multiple outlets have noted his unavailability in their analysis. If he misses the game, it would be the first time this season the Spurs play without him, and their defensive efficiency drops by nearly 12% in such scenarios.
Why are so many bettors backing the Spurs despite their injury concerns?
The public is reacting to the Spurs’ strong home record (7-2) and their 10-4 overall record, which looks dominant on paper. Plus, the betting market is slow to adjust to unconfirmed injuries. Seventy-two percent of bets and cash are on San Antonio, but that’s largely driven by reputation, not data. Smart money often waits for confirmation—especially when a team’s ceiling depends on one player.
Can the Grizzlies actually cover a +6.5 spread?
Yes—if Wembanyama is out. Memphis has covered +13.5 in six of their last seven road games. They’ve scored over 111.5 points in 10 of their last 11 meetings with San Antonio. Even with a 43% shooting rate, they’re disciplined in half-court sets and don’t panic. A 115-120 final would cover +6.5. A 118-123 final? That’s a push. They don’t need to win. They just need to stay close.
What’s the most likely outcome based on the data?
If Wembanyama plays, the Spurs win by 8-10 points and cover easily. If he’s out, expect a 116-112 Spurs win—just enough to cover a +6.5 spread for Memphis. The over/under is likely to hit under 230, as both teams slow down without Wembanyama’s pace or Memphis’ offensive rhythm. The real value? Backing the Grizzlies +6.5 if the injury is confirmed.
How does this game compare to past Spurs-Grizzlies matchups?
In their 62 all-time meetings, home teams have won 33 times. But recent games have been tighter: in the last five matchups, four were decided by six points or fewer. The Grizzlies have won three of the last five games outright in San Antonio. This isn’t a blowout waiting to happen—it’s a coin flip with a 6.5-point weight on one side. And that weight just got lighter.
Should I bet the under on the total points?
Yes—if Wembanyama is out. The Spurs’ offense slows without his spacing and rim pressure. The Grizzlies rank 29th in field goal percentage and don’t push pace. The over has hit in only 2 of the Spurs’ last 5 games and 3 of their last 9 home games. With both teams struggling offensively and no star to ignite a run, the under 232.5 is the smarter play.